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Pat Freiermuth
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceiving Yards · 32.5 at DraftKings · median 30.5 ·
56Signal · over 32.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.8 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 30.0 yds against 32.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 32.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -21| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 45 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 20 under | −12.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 63 over | +30.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 51 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 46 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 32 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 30 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 17 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 44 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 11 under | −21.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
6 books · 3 yds spread
- FanDuel 29.5
- BetMGM 30.5
- Fliff 30.5
- Hard Rock Bet 30.5
- PrizePicks 30.5
- DraftKings 32.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 32.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 44 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 30 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 32 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 46 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 51 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 63 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 20 | under |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 45 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 33 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 27 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 111 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 31 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 28 | under |