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Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETRushing Yards · 14.5 at ESPN Bet · median 16.5 ·
42Signal · over 14.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.4 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 11.4 yds against 14.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -14| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 3 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 30 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 30 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 59 over | +44.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 23 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 17 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 1 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 0 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 16 over | +1.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 14.5
- ESPN Bet 14.5 -130 (easiest number)
- betPARX 15.5 -115
- BetRivers 15.5 -117
- BetMGM 15.5 -120
- Bally Bet 15.5 -121
- Fliff 16.5 -125
- PrizePicks 16.5
- DraftKings 17.5 -107
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5 -110
- FanDuel 17.5 -114
- DK Pick6 17.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- betPARXMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- BetRiversMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- FliffMoved from 14.5 to 16.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 13.5 to 16.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- FanDuelMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 14.5 to 17.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 15 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 32 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 60 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 66 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 57 | over |