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Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETRushing Yards · 16.5 at Fliff ·
60Signal · over 16.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.4 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 11.4 yds against 16.5 · over 40%, under 60%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -16| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 3 under | −13.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 30 over | +13.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 30 over | +13.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 59 over | +42.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 15 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 23 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 17 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 1 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 0 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 16 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spread
- ESPN Bet 14.5
- betPARX 15.5
- BetRivers 15.5
- BetMGM 15.5
- Bally Bet 15.5
- Fliff 16.5
- PrizePicks 16.5
- DraftKings 17.5
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5
- FanDuel 17.5
- DK Pick6 17.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- betPARXMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- BetRiversMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- FliffMoved from 14.5 to 16.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 13.5 to 16.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- FanDuelMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 14.5 to 17.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 32 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 60 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 66 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 57 | over |