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Patrick Mahomes
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETRushing Yards · 17.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 16.5 ·
61Signal · under 17.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.4 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 11.4 yds against 17.5 · over 39%, under 61%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 17.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -41 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DEN | 3 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | IND | 30 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DAL | 30 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 59 over | +41.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 15 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 23 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 17 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 1 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 0 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 16 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 17.5
- ESPN Bet 14.5
- betPARX 15.5
- BetRivers 15.5
- BetMGM 15.5
- Bally Bet 15.5
- Fliff 16.5
- PrizePicks 16.5
- DraftKings 17.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 17.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 17.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- betPARXMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- BetRiversMoved from 14.5 to 15.5
- FliffMoved from 14.5 to 16.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 13.5 to 16.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- FanDuelMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 14.5 to 17.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 14.5 to 17.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 30 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 32 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 60 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 66 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 57 | over |