← NFL board3 straight over
Ryan Flournoy
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 33.5 at Bally Bet ·
47Signal · over 33.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 38.7 yds against 33.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 33.5 · Dec 4, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -15| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | DET | 115 over | +81.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 40 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 18 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 68 over | +34.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 22 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 23 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 22 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 37 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 90 over | +56.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 40 over | +6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 32.5
- BetMGM 32.5 -115 (easiest number)
- betPARX 33.5 -114
- FanDuel 33.5 -114
- BetRivers 33.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5 -115
- DraftKings 33.5 -116
- Bally Bet 33.5 -120
- Fliff 33.5 -120
- PrizePicks 33.5
- ESPN Bet 34.5 -105
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- FanDuelMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- FliffMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 30.5 to 33.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 40 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 90 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 23 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 22 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 68 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 40 | over |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 115 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 34 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 114 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 21 | under |