← NFL board3 straight over
Ryan Flournoy
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 34.5 at ESPN Bet · median 33.5 ·
47Signal · over 34.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 38.7 yds against 34.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 34.5 · Dec 4, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -16| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | DET | 115 over | +80.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 40 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 18 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 68 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 22 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 23 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 22 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 37 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 90 over | +55.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 40 over | +5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 32.5
- BetMGM 32.5 -115 (easiest number)
- betPARX 33.5 -114
- FanDuel 33.5 -114
- BetRivers 33.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5 -115
- DraftKings 33.5 -116
- Bally Bet 33.5 -120
- Fliff 33.5 -120
- PrizePicks 33.5
- ESPN Bet 34.5 -105
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- FanDuelMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- FliffMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 30.5 to 33.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 34.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 40 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 90 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 23 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 22 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 68 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 40 | over |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 115 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 34 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 114 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 21 | under |