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Sam Darnold
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETRushing Yards · 5.5 at DraftKings · median 4.5 ·
52Signal · over 5.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 1.4 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 7.0 yds against 5.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 23 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 7 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 9 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 0 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 19 over | +13.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 yds spread
- FanDuel 4.5
- BetMGM 4.5
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5
- Underdog 4.5
- ESPN Bet 5.5
- DraftKings 5.5
- PrizePicks 5.5
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 3.5 to 5.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | -1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 11 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | -2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 24 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 14 | over |