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Saquon Barkley
PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 74.5 at BetMGM · median 75.5 ·
63Signal · under 74.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 9.0 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.02 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 46.4 yds against 74.5 · over 37%, under 63%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 74.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -66| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | DAL | 22 under | −52.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | CHI | 56 under | −18.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAC | 122 over | +47.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LV | 78 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 132 over | +57.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 68 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | WAS | 83 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TEN | 9 under | −65.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | CHI | 82 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LA | 8 under | −66.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 2 yds spread
- DraftKings 74.5
- BetMGM 74.5
- PrizePicks 75.5
- FanDuel 76.5
- Hard Rock Bet 76.5
- Fliff 76.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs LA | 8 | under |
| 2026-09-28 | @ CHI | 82 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TEN | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs WAS | 83 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 68 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 132 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | 78 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 122 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 56 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 83 | over |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 60 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | 150 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ MIN | 44 | under |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 58 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ TB | 43 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 46 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ KC | 88 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 60 | under |