← NFL board
Tony Pollard
TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 17.5 at Bally Bet · median 16.5 ·
59Signal · under 17.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.5 a game recently
Expected carries: 14.5 against 17.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 17.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 14 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 21 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 18 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | JAX | 14 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 7 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 14 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 17 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 16 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 14 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 19 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +2.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 17.5
- DraftKings 16.5
- Fanatics 16.5
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5
- Fliff 16.5
- PrizePicks 16.5
- Underdog 16.5
- Bally Bet 17.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 17.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 14 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 7 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ JAX | 14 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 14 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 25 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 18 | over |