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Tony Pollard

TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 79.5 at Underdog ·

58Signal · under 79.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
3 straight under
Underdog 79.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

  • carries: 14.5 a game recently
  • targets: 2.2 a game recently
  • vs CLE · ×1.04 yds per carry
  • vs CLE · ×0.98 yds per target

Expected rush + rec yards: 64.5 yds against 79.5 · over 42%, under 58%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 79.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -32 on the under
79.52025-12-14 at SF: 112, over 79.5 by 32.5 yds112SF2025-12-21 vs KC: 102, over 79.5 by 22.5 yds102KC2025-12-28 vs NO: 95, over 79.5 by 15.5 yds95NO2026-01-04 at JAX: 65, under 79.5 by 14.5 yds65JAX2026-09-13 vs NYJ: 34, under 79.5 by 45.5 yds34NYJ2026-09-20 vs PHI: 65, under 79.5 by 14.5 yds65PHI2026-09-27 at NYG: 96, over 79.5 by 16.5 yds96NYG2026-10-04 at BAL: 50, under 79.5 by 29.5 yds50BAL2026-10-11 vs HOU: 52, under 79.5 by 27.5 yds52HOU2026-10-18 at IND: 76, under 79.5 by 3.5 yds76IND
Each game against 79.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-12-14SF112 over+32.5
2025-12-21KC102 over+22.5
2025-12-28NO95 over+15.5
2026-01-04JAX65 under−14.5
2026-09-13NYJ34 under−45.5
2026-09-20PHI65 under−14.5
2026-09-27NYG96 over+16.5
2026-10-04BAL50 under−29.5
2026-10-11HOU52 under−27.5
2026-10-18IND76 under−3.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 106 / 1060% under+5
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

79.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 79.5
2026-10-18@ IND76under
2026-10-11vs HOU52under
2026-10-04@ BAL50under
2026-09-27@ NYG96over
2026-09-20vs PHI65under
2026-09-13vs NYJ34under
2026-01-04@ JAX65under
2025-12-28vs NO95over
2025-12-21vs KC102over
2025-12-14@ SF112over
2025-12-07@ CLE161over
2025-11-30vs JAX63under
2025-11-23vs SEA41under
2025-11-16vs HOU26under
2025-11-02vs LAC68under
2025-10-26@ IND53under
2025-10-19vs NE61under
2025-10-12@ LV47under
2025-10-05@ ARI78under
2025-09-28@ HOU76under
2025-09-21vs IND59under
2025-09-14vs LA92over
2025-09-07@ DEN89over