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Tony Pollard
TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 70.5 at Bally Bet · median 65.5 ·
57Signal · over 70.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.5 a game recently
- vs CLE · ×1.04 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 60.5 yds against 70.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 70.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -35| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 104 over | +33.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 102 over | +31.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 85 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | JAX | 48 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 35 under | −35.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 64 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 74 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 48 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 52 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | IND | 76 over | +5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 6 yds spread
- BetMGM 64.5
- ESPN Bet 64.5
- FanDuel 65.5
- Fanatics 65.5
- Hard Rock Bet 65.5
- PrizePicks 65.5
- DraftKings 66.5
- Fliff 66.5
- Bally Bet 70.5
- betPARX 70.5
- BetRivers 70.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 67.5 to 65.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 67.5 to 65.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 65.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 67.5 to 66.5
- FliffMoved from 67.5 to 66.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 70.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ IND | 76 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 52 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 48 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 74 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 64 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 35 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ JAX | 48 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 85 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 102 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 104 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 161 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 60 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 56 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 44 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 18 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 67 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 64 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 45 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 92 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 60 | under |