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Travis Kelce
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 49.5 at betPARX · median 46.5 ·
53Signal · under 49.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Travis's targets without Rashee Rice: 5.6 a game (11 games), against 6.6 with him (11).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.4 a game recently
- vs SEA · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 58.4 yds against 49.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -43| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 8 under | −41.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 70 over | +20.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 6 under | −43.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 36 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LV | 12 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 71 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 101 over | +51.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 59 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 15 under | −34.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 53 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spread
- ESPN Bet 44.5
- BetMGM 45.5
- DraftKings 46.5
- FanDuel 46.5
- Hard Rock Bet 46.5
- Fliff 46.5
- DK Pick6 46.5
- PrizePicks 46.5
- betPARX 49.5
- BetRivers 49.5
- Bally Bet 49.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 46.5 to 44.5
- BetMGMMoved from 46.5 to 45.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 45.5 to 46.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 50.5 to 46.5
- Bally BetMoved from 46.5 to 49.5
- betPARXMoved from 46.5 to 49.5
- BetRiversMoved from 46.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 53 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 59 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 101 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 71 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LV | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 36 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 70 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 45 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 43 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 91 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 66 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 99 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 54 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 78 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 61 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 48 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 26 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 61 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 47 | under |