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Travis Kelce
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 44.5 at ESPN Bet · median 46.5 ·
52Signal · under 44.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Travis's targets without Rashee Rice: 5.6 a game (11 games), against 6.6 with him (11).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.4 a game recently
- vs SEA · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 58.4 yds against 44.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 44.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -38| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 8 under | −36.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 70 over | +25.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 6 under | −38.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 36 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LV | 12 under | −32.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 71 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 101 over | +56.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 59 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 15 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 53 over | +8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spread
- ESPN Bet 44.5
- BetMGM 45.5
- DraftKings 46.5
- FanDuel 46.5
- Hard Rock Bet 46.5
- Fliff 46.5
- DK Pick6 46.5
- PrizePicks 46.5
- betPARX 49.5
- BetRivers 49.5
- Bally Bet 49.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 46.5 to 44.5
- BetMGMMoved from 46.5 to 45.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 45.5 to 46.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 50.5 to 46.5
- Bally BetMoved from 46.5 to 49.5
- betPARXMoved from 46.5 to 49.5
- BetRiversMoved from 46.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 44.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 53 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 59 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 101 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 71 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LV | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 36 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 70 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 43 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 91 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 66 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 99 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 54 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 78 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 61 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 48 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 26 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 61 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 47 | over |