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Trey McBride
ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 64.5 at betPARX · median 65.5 ·
44Signal · over 64.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 10.8 a game recently
- vs DEN · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 61.1 yds against 64.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 64.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -37| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 134 over | +69.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 27 under | −37.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 76 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 65 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 95 over | +30.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 41 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 75 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 31 under | −33.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 66 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 53 under | −11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 64.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -120
- Bally Bet 64.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 64.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 64.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- ESPN Bet 64.5 -125 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 65.5 -114
- BetMGM 65.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 65.5 -115
- Fliff 65.5 -125
- DraftKings 66.5 -111
- PrizePicks 66.5
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 66.5 to 65.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 65.5 to 66.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 64.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 53 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 66 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 31 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 75 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 41 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 95 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 76 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 27 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 134 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 58 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 82 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 79 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 115 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 127 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | @ DAL | 55 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 74 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 72 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 41 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SF | 43 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CAR | 78 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NO | 61 | under |