← NFL board

Trey McBride

ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 66.5 at DraftKings · median 65.5 ·

56Signal · under 66.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
3 straight under

How the formula reads this game

  • targets: 10.8 a game recently
  • vs DEN · ×1.02 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 61.1 yds against 66.5 · over 44%, under 56%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 66.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -67 on the under
66.52025-12-14 at HOU: 134, over 66.5 by 67.5 yds134HOU2025-12-21 vs ATL: 27, under 66.5 by 39.5 yds27ATL2025-12-28 at CIN: 76, over 66.5 by 9.5 yds76CIN2026-01-04 at LA: 65, under 66.5 by 1.5 yds65LA2026-09-13 at LAC: 95, over 66.5 by 28.5 yds95LAC2026-09-20 vs SEA: 41, under 66.5 by 25.5 yds41SEA2026-09-27 at SF: 75, over 66.5 by 8.5 yds75SF2026-10-04 at NYG: 31, under 66.5 by 35.5 yds31NYG2026-10-11 vs DET: 66, under 66.5 by 0.5 yds66DET2026-10-18 at LA: 53, under 66.5 by 13.5 yds53LA
Each game against 66.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-12-14HOU134 over+67.5
2025-12-21ATL27 under−39.5
2025-12-28CIN76 over+9.5
2026-01-04LA65 under−1.5
2026-09-13LAC95 over+28.5
2026-09-20SEA41 under−25.5
2026-09-27SF75 over+8.5
2026-10-04NYG31 under−35.5
2026-10-11DET66 under−0.5
2026-10-18LA53 under−13.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 106 / 1060% under0
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 66.5
  • Bally Bet 64.5
  • betPARX 64.5
  • BetRivers 64.5
  • ESPN Bet 64.5
  • FanDuel 65.5
  • BetMGM 65.5
  • Hard Rock Bet 65.5
  • Fliff 65.5
  • DraftKings 66.5 (easiest number)
  • PrizePicks 66.5 (easiest number)

Line movement

  • FliffMoved from 66.5 to 65.5
  • DraftKingsMoved from 65.5 to 66.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 66.5
2026-10-18@ LA53under
2026-10-11vs DET66under
2026-10-04@ NYG31under
2026-09-27@ SF75over
2026-09-20vs SEA41under
2026-09-13@ LAC95over
2026-01-04@ LA65under
2025-12-28@ CIN76over
2025-12-21vs ATL27under
2025-12-14@ HOU134over
2025-12-07vs LA58under
2025-11-30@ TB82over
2025-11-23vs JAX79over
2025-11-16vs SF115over
2025-11-09@ SEA127over
2025-11-03@ DAL55under
2025-10-19vs GB74over
2025-10-12@ IND72over
2025-10-05vs TEN41under
2025-09-25vs SEA52under
2025-09-21@ SF43under
2025-09-14vs CAR78over
2025-09-07@ NO61under