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Tucker Kraft
GB @ DET · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
55Signal · under 4.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.2 against 4.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | CIN | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | ARI | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | PIT | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | CAR | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NYJ | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | ATL | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TB | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CHI | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | DAL | 5 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
4.511 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · BB · FD · DK · FL · HR · ESPN · FAN · MGM · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs DAL | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CHI | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ TB | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-24 | vs ATL | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NYJ | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CAR | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PIT | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ ARI | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-11 | vs WAS | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs DET | 2 | under |