Tyjae Spears

TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 11.5 at PrizePicks ·

55Signal · over 11.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

4 straight under

PrizePicks 11.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

carries: 3.0 a game recently
vs CLE · ×1.04 yds per carry

Expected rushing yards: 11.4 yds against 11.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 11.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -11

Each game against 11.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	SF	34 over	+22.5
2025-12-21	KC	52 over	+40.5
2025-12-28	NO	2 under	−9.5
2026-01-04	JAX	18 over	+6.5
2026-09-13	NYJ	12 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	PHI	41 over	+29.5
2026-09-27	NYG	5 under	−6.5
2026-10-04	BAL	7 under	−4.5
2026-10-11	HOU	0 under	−11.5
2026-10-18	IND	1 under	−10.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+6
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

11.5PrizePicks· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 11.5
2026-10-18	@ IND	1	under
2026-10-11	vs HOU	0	under
2026-10-04	@ BAL	7	under
2026-09-27	@ NYG	5	under
2026-09-20	vs PHI	41	over
2026-09-13	vs NYJ	12	over
2026-01-04	@ JAX	18	over
2025-12-28	vs NO	2	under
2025-12-21	vs KC	52	over
2025-12-14	@ SF	34	over
2025-12-07	@ CLE	19	over
2025-11-30	vs JAX	-1	under
2025-11-23	vs SEA	4	under
2025-11-16	vs HOU	3	under
2025-11-02	vs LAC	26	over
2025-10-26	@ IND	59	over
2025-10-19	vs NE	22	over
2025-10-12	@ LV	31	over
2025-10-05	@ ARI	14	over