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Tyler Shough
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETPassing Yards · 227.5 at FanDuel · median 230.5 ·
48Signal · over 227.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 39.2 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 240.5 yds against 227.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 227.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -131| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 272 over | +44.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 308 over | +80.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 333 over | +105.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ATL | 259 over | +31.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 410 over | +182.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 252 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 255 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 286 over | +58.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 96 under | −131.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 144 under | −83.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +34 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 7 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 227.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 227.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -115 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 229.5 -110
- DraftKings 229.5 -113
- Fliff 230.5 -120
- BetMGM 231.5 -115
- PrizePicks 232.5
- Bally Bet 234.5 -115
- betPARX 234.5 -115
- BetRivers 234.5 -117
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 232.5 to 227.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 233.5 to 227.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 235.5 to 229.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 224.5 to 229.5
- FliffMoved from 232.5 to 230.5
- BetMGMMoved from 233.5 to 231.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 221.5 to 232.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 227.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 144 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 96 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 286 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 255 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 252 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 410 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ATL | 259 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 333 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 308 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 272 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 144 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 239 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 243 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 282 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 176 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 128 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 0 | under |