← NFL board
Tyler Shough
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETPassing Yards · 232.5 at PrizePicks · median 230.5 ·
47Signal · over 232.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 39.2 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 240.5 yds against 232.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 232.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -136| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 272 over | +39.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYJ | 308 over | +75.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | TEN | 333 over | +100.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ATL | 259 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 410 over | +177.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 252 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 255 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 286 over | +53.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 96 under | −136.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 144 under | −88.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +29 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 7 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 227.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 227.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -115 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 229.5 -110
- DraftKings 229.5 -113
- Fliff 230.5 -120
- BetMGM 231.5 -115
- PrizePicks 232.5
- Bally Bet 234.5 -115
- betPARX 234.5 -115
- BetRivers 234.5 -117
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 232.5 to 227.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 233.5 to 227.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 235.5 to 229.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 224.5 to 229.5
- FliffMoved from 232.5 to 230.5
- BetMGMMoved from 233.5 to 231.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 221.5 to 232.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 232.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 144 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 96 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 286 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 255 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 252 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 410 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ ATL | 259 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ TEN | 333 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NYJ | 308 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 272 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 144 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 239 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 243 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 282 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LA | 176 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 128 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SEA | 0 | under |