Zach Charbonnet

SEA vs CHI · Mon 8:20 PM ET

Carries · 9.5 at Underdog ·

51Signal · under 9.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

carries: 11.3 a game recently

Expected carries: 11.3 against 9.5 · over 49%, under 51%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 0 this season.

Last 10 games against 9.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Jan 3, 2026

Worst miss -3.5

Each game against 9.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-02	WAS	8 under	−1.5
2025-11-09	ARI	14 over	+4.5
2025-11-16	LA	11 over	+1.5
2025-11-23	TEN	6 under	−3.5
2025-11-30	MIN	14 over	+4.5
2025-12-07	ATL	7 under	−2.5
2025-12-14	IND	8 under	−1.5
2025-12-18	LA	9 under	−0.5
2025-12-28	CAR	18 over	+8.5
2026-01-03	SF	17 over	+7.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+1.7
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

9.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 9.5
2026-01-03	@ SF	17	over
2025-12-28	@ CAR	18	over
2025-12-18	vs LA	9	under
2025-12-14	vs IND	8	under
2025-12-07	@ ATL	7	under
2025-11-30	vs MIN	14	over
2025-11-23	@ TEN	6	under
2025-11-16	@ LA	11	over
2025-11-09	vs ARI	14	over
2025-11-02	@ WAS	8	under
2025-10-20	vs HOU	12	over
2025-10-12	@ JAX	12	over
2025-10-05	vs TB	9	under
2025-09-25	@ ARI	12	over
2025-09-14	@ PIT	15	over
2025-09-07	vs SF	12	over