← NFL board3 straight over
Zach Charbonnet
SEA vs CHI · Mon 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff ·
54Signal · under 1.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.6 against 1.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 0 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Jan 3, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | WAS | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | ARI | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | LA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | TEN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | MIN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
1.55 books, no line disagreementMGM · DK · HR · FD · FL
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 0 | under |