← NFL board3 straight over
Zach Charbonnet
SEA vs CHI · Mon 8:20 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 46.5 at BetMGM · median 44.5 ·
50Signal · over 46.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 11.3 a game recently
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×1.01 yds per carry
- vs CHI · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 63.8 yds against 46.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 0 this season.
Last 10 games against 46.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Jan 3, 2026
Worst miss -15| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | WAS | 46 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | ARI | 83 over | +36.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | LA | 47 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | TEN | 35 under | −11.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | MIN | 52 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 66 over | +19.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 31 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 54 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 122 over | +75.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 97 over | +50.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +17 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 44.5 · best price DK -113
- DraftKings 44.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- FanDuel 44.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 44.5 -115 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 44.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 45.5 -120
- BetMGM 46.5 -115
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 46.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 97 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 122 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 54 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 31 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 66 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 52 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 35 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 47 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 83 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 46 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 55 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 37 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 48 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 44 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 47 | over |