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Ashton Jeanty
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETCarries · 14 at PrizePicks · median 13.5 ·
50Signal · over 1470% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 16.3 a game recently
Expected carries: 16.3 against 14 · over 50%, under 50% (if it doesn't land exactly on 14)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | PHI | 9 under | −5.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 24 over | +10.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 16 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 26 over | +12.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 23 over | +9.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 21 over | +7.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 19 over | +5.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 15 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 10 under | −4.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 10 under | −4.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +3.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 0.5 spreadEasiest number for the over: 13.5 · best price DK -115
- DraftKings 13.5 -115 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -120 (easiest number)
- betPARX 13.5 -121 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 13.5 -125 (easiest number)
- Fliff 13.5 -130 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 14
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 13.5 to 14
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 10 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 10 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 21 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 23 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 26 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 24 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ PHI | 9 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 14 | push |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 21 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 19 | over |