← NFL board4 straight over
Ashton Jeanty
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 24.5 at ESPN Bet · median 25.5 ·
49Signal · over 24.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs LA · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 43.0 yds against 24.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 24.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -17| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | PHI | 7 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 60 over | +35.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 13 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 7 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 45 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 15 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 37 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 68 over | +43.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 50 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 36 over | +11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 24.5 · best price PX2 -120
- betPARX 24.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 24.5 -121 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 24.5 -124 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 24.5 -130 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 25.5 -113
- Hard Rock Bet 25.5 -120
- Fliff 25.5 -125
- PrizePicks 25.5
- DraftKings 26.5 -109
- DK Pick6 26.5
- BetMGM 27.5 -111
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 26.5 to 24.5
- betPARXMoved from 26.5 to 24.5
- BetRiversMoved from 26.5 to 24.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 28.5 to 25.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 25.5 to 26.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 24.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 36 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 50 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 68 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 45 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 60 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ PHI | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 58 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 27 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 47 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 42 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 2 | under |