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Ashton Jeanty
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 80.5 at BetMGM · median 79.5 ·
52Signal · under 80.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 16.3 a game recently
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs LA · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 95.3 yds against 80.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 80.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -38| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | PHI | 42 under | −38.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 188 over | +107.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 73 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 94 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 147 over | +66.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 63 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 93 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 126 over | +45.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 77 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 58 under | −22.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +16 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 4 yds spread
- DraftKings 78.5
- PrizePicks 78.5
- FanDuel 79.5
- Hard Rock Bet 79.5
- Fliff 79.5
- Underdog 79.5
- BetMGM 80.5
- Bally Bet 82.5
- betPARX 82.5
- BetRivers 82.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 81.5 to 78.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 79.5 to 78.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 80.5 to 79.5
- UnderdogMoved from 84.5 to 79.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 58 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 77 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 126 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 93 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 63 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 147 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 94 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 73 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 188 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ PHI | 42 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 38 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 61 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 108 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 34 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 63 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 89 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 86 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 109 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 155 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 63 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 44 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 40 | under |