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Bijan Robinson
ATL vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 18 at PrizePicks · median 17.5 ·
53Signal · under 1850% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 18.5 a game recently
Expected carries: 18.5 against 18 · over 47%, under 53% (if it doesn't land exactly on 18)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 18 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -9| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | TB | 19 over | +1.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | 16 under | −2.0 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 22 over | +4.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 15 under | −3.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | PIT | 21 over | +3.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | CAR | 16 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 29 over | +11.0 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 19 over | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 17 under | −1.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 9 under | −9.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 1 spread
- DraftKings 17.5
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5
- Fliff 17.5
- PrizePicks 18
- betPARX 18.5
- Bally Bet 18.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- FliffMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 18.5 to 18
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 19 | over |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 29 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PIT | 21 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 22 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 19 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 19 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 12 | under |