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Bijan Robinson
ATL vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 28.5 at ESPN Bet · median 26.5 ·
58Signal · over 28.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.5 a game recently
- vs SF · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 24.2 yds against 28.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 28.5 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -36| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | TB | 82 over | +53.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | 92 over | +63.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 34 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 10 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PIT | 90 over | +61.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CAR | 9 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 19 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 2 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 32 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | -8 under | −36.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spread
- betPARX 25.5
- BetRivers 25.5
- Bally Bet 25.5
- Fanatics 25.5
- Fliff 25.5
- DraftKings 26.5
- FanDuel 26.5
- BetMGM 26.5
- Hard Rock Bet 26.5
- PrizePicks 26.5
- ESPN Bet 28.5
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 24.5 to 26.5
- FanDuelMoved from 24.5 to 26.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 24.5 to 26.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 28.5 to 26.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 28.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | -8 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 32 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 19 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CAR | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PIT | 90 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 34 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | 92 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 82 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 51 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 37 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 39 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 52 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 68 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 106 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 39 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 25 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 100 | over |