Brock Purdy

SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carries · 4.5 at DraftKings ·

48Signal · over 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

carries: 5.0 a game recently

Expected carries: 5.0 against 4.5 · over 48%, under 52%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026

Worst miss -2.5

Each game against 4.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	TEN	7 over	+2.5
2025-12-22	IND	2 under	−2.5
2025-12-28	CHI	6 over	+1.5
2026-01-03	SEA	2 under	−2.5
2026-09-10	LA	5 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	MIA	3 under	−1.5
2026-09-27	ARI	2 under	−2.5
2026-10-04	DEN	10 over	+5.5
2026-10-11	SEA	5 over	+0.5
2026-10-19	WAS	5 over	+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	+0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

4.57 books, no line disagreementDK · PX2 · BB · FL · HR · PP · UD· best price at 4.5: DK -104

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 4.5
2026-10-19	vs WAS	5	over
2026-10-11	@ SEA	5	over
2026-10-04	vs DEN	10	over
2026-09-27	vs ARI	2	under
2026-09-20	vs MIA	3	under
2026-09-10	@ LA	5	over
2026-01-03	vs SEA	2	under
2025-12-28	vs CHI	6	over
2025-12-22	@ IND	2	under
2025-12-14	vs TEN	7	over
2025-11-30	@ CLE	2	under
2025-11-24	vs CAR	6	over
2025-11-16	@ ARI	1	under
2025-09-28	vs JAX	2	under
2025-09-07	@ SEA	5	over