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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETCarries · 4.5 at DraftKings ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
- Kyle Monangai RB is listed Out (thumb). He had 38% of CHI's carries this season, 15.0 a game over 4.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.3 a game recently
Expected carries: 6.3 against 4.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 10 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.58 books, no line disagreementDK · HR · ESPN · PX2 · FL · BB · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 10 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 6 | over |