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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 at BetMGM ·
70%over7 / 10 · last 10
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 30.3 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.0 against 1.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 1 under | −0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
1.59 books, no line disagreementBB · PX2 · BR · FD · MGM · HR · DK · ESPN · FL· best price at 1.5: BB, PX2, BR, FD -152
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 2 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 1 | under |