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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 17.5 at FanDuel · median 19.5 ·
50%even5 / 10 · last 10
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
- Kyle Monangai RB is listed Out (thumb). He had 38% of CHI's carries this season, 15.0 a game over 4.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.3 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 36.7 yds against 17.5 · over 54%, under 46%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 17.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -16| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 21 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 13 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 15 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 13 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 30 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 18 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 1 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 65 over | +47.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 42 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 3 under | −14.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
12 books · 3 yds spread
- FanDuel 17.5
- Hard Rock Bet 18.5
- DraftKings 18.5
- Fliff 18.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
- betPARX 19.5
- BetRivers 19.5
- Bally Bet 19.5
- DK Pick6 19.5
- PrizePicks 19.5
- Underdog 19.5
- BetMGM 20.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 18.5
- FliffMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 17.5 to 18.5
- Bally BetMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- betPARXMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- BetRiversMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 20.5 to 19.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- BetMGMMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 17.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 42 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 65 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 30 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 26 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 63 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 53 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | -2 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 27 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 58 | over |