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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 18.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 19.5 ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
- Kyle Monangai RB is listed Out (thumb). He had 38% of CHI's carries this season, 15.0 a game over 4.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.3 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 36.7 yds against 18.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 18.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -46 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 21 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 13 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 15 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 13 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 30 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 18 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 1 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 65 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 42 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 3 under | −15.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 20.5
- FanDuel 17.5
- Hard Rock Bet 18.5
- DraftKings 18.5
- Fliff 18.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
- betPARX 19.5
- BetRivers 19.5
- Bally Bet 19.5
- DK Pick6 19.5
- PrizePicks 19.5
- Underdog 19.5
- BetMGM 20.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 18.5
- FliffMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 17.5 to 18.5
- Bally BetMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- betPARXMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- BetRiversMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 20.5 to 19.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 17.5 to 19.5
- BetMGMMoved from 19.5 to 20.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 18.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 42 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 65 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 30 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 21 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 26 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 63 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 53 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | -2 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 27 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 58 | over |