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Chase Brown
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 20.5 at Fliff ·
46Signal · over 20.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.6 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 24.2 yds against 20.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 20.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -18| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 12 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 37 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 43 over | +22.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 40 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 18 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 22 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 2 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 8 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 71 over | +50.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 21 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 19.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 19.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5 -120 (easiest number)
- Fliff 20.5 -115
- DraftKings 20.5 -116
- BetMGM 20.5 -120
- PrizePicks 21.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 22.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 20.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 21 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 71 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 8 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 22 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 40 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 37 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 28 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 75 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 32 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | -8 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 21 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 31 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 8 | under |