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Chase Brown
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 21.5 at PrizePicks · median 20.5 ·
55Signal · over 21.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.6 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 24.2 yds against 21.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 12 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 37 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 43 over | +21.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 40 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 18 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 22 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 2 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 8 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 71 over | +49.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 21 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 2 yds spread
- FanDuel 19.5
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5
- Fliff 20.5
- DraftKings 20.5
- BetMGM 20.5
- PrizePicks 21.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 22.5 to 21.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 21 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 71 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 8 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 22 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 40 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 37 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NE | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 28 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 75 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 32 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | -8 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 31 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 8 | under |