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Chris Rodriguez Jr.
JAX vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 7.5 at ESPN Bet ·
44Signal · over 7.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.5 a game recently
Expected carries: 6.5 against 7.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 7.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | DEN | 11 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIN | 10 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | PHI | 15 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PHI | 16 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CLE | 6 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DEN | 6 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NE | 8 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CIN | 6 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PHI | 2 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | HOU | 11 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +1.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7.510 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BB · DK · MGM · FAN · HR · ESPN · PK6 · PP · UD· best price at 7.5: PX2 +100
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
- betPARXMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 7.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs HOU | 11 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs PHI | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CIN | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NE | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DEN | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CLE | 6 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PHI | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs PHI | 15 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ MIN | 10 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs DEN | 11 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIA | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs DET | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SEA | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ LAC | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ ATL | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LV | 11 | over |