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Chris Rodriguez Jr.
JAX vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 29.5 at ESPN Bet · median 31.5 ·
44Signal · over 29.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.5 a game recently
- vs IND · ×0.99 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 27.7 yds against 29.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 29.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -24| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | DEN | 41 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIN | 52 over | +22.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | PHI | 63 over | +33.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PHI | 65 over | +35.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CLE | 23 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DEN | 13 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NE | 37 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CIN | 35 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PHI | 5 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | HOU | 55 over | +25.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 29.5
- ESPN Bet 29.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 31.5 -110
- DraftKings 31.5 -113
- FanDuel 31.5 -114
- BetMGM 31.5 -115
- DK Pick6 31.5
- betPARX 32.5 -109
- BetRivers 32.5 -110
- Bally Bet 32.5 -114
- PrizePicks 32.5
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 27.5 to 31.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 24.5 to 31.5
- FanDuelMoved from 23.5 to 31.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 23.5 to 31.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 33.5 to 31.5
- Bally BetMoved from 27.5 to 32.5
- betPARXMoved from 27.5 to 32.5
- BetRiversMoved from 27.5 to 32.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 25.5 to 32.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 29.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs HOU | 55 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs PHI | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CIN | 35 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NE | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DEN | 13 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CLE | 23 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PHI | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs PHI | 63 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ MIN | 52 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs DEN | 41 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIA | 79 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs DET | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SEA | 65 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | @ KC | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DAL | 12 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ LAC | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ ATL | 59 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LV | 39 | over |