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Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 107.5 at PrizePicks · median 110.5 ·
58Signal · under 107.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 12.8 a game recently
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
- vs ATL · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 89.2 yds against 107.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 107.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -73 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 87 under | −20.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 146 over | +38.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 181 over | +73.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 57 under | −50.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 88 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 66 under | −41.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 116 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 70 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 83 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 117 over | +9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 112.5
- DraftKings 107.5
- PrizePicks 107.5
- Hard Rock Bet 110.5
- Fliff 110.5
- FanDuel 111.5
- Bally Bet 112.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 112.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 112.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 111.5 to 107.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 111.5 to 107.5
- FliffMoved from 111.5 to 110.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 111.5 to 110.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 107.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 117 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 83 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 70 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 116 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 66 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 88 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 57 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 181 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 146 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 87 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 74 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 142 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 121 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 96 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 173 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 68 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 201 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 111 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 139 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 141 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 140 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 107 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 142 | over |