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Drew Lock
SEA vs ARI · Sun 4:25 PM ETPassing Yards · 214.5 at Fliff · median 213.5 ·
70Signal · under 214.580% · 4 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 5Cleared the number in 1 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 14.1 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 122.7 yds against 214.5 · over 27%, under 73%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 214.5 · Sep 21, 2025 – Sep 20, 2026
Worst miss -20 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-21 | NO | 15 under | −199.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | ARI | 0 under | −214.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 0 under | −214.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 187 under | −27.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 235 over | +20.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 5 | 80% under | +127 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 10 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 217.5
- Bally Bet 207.5
- betPARX 207.5
- BetRivers 207.5
- DraftKings 210.5
- DK Pick6 210.5
- Hard Rock Bet 213.5
- ESPN Bet 214.5
- Fliff 214.5
- FanDuel 215.5
- PrizePicks 215.5
- Underdog 215.5
- BetMGM 217.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 212.5 to 207.5
- betPARXMoved from 212.5 to 207.5
- BetRiversMoved from 212.5 to 207.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 212.5 to 210.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 214.5 to 213.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 209.5 to 214.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 214.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 235 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 187 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 15 | under |