← NFL board4 straight over
Emanuel Wilson
SEA vs CHI · Mon 8:20 PM ETRushing Yards · 19.5 at Underdog ·
59Signal · over 19.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 15.9 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 58.4 yds against 19.5 · over 59%, under 41%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 19.5 · Dec 20, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -16| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 82 over | +62.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 16 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIN | 44 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 3 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 92 over | +72.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 14 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 81 over | +61.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 61 over | +41.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 52 over | +32.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | KC | 100 over | +80.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +35 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 18.5 · best price FD -114
- FanDuel 18.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 18.5 -115 (easiest number)
- Fliff 18.5 -125 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 19.5 -105
- DraftKings 19.5 -110
- PrizePicks 19.5
- Underdog 19.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs KC | 100 | over |
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 52 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 61 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 81 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 92 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ MIN | 44 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 82 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CHI | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DET | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 107 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 40 | over |
| 2025-11-10 | vs PHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PIT | 61 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ ARI | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CIN | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DAL | 44 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CLE | 25 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs DET | 4 | under |