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Gardner Minshew
ARI @ SEA · Sun 4:25 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 at Fanatics · median 0.5 ·
58Signal · under 1.580% · 4 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 5Cleared the number in 1 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 9.8 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.0 against 1.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Sep 28, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-28 | BAL | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | LV | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | DAL | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 5 | 80% under | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 1.5
- Bally Bet 0.5
- betPARX 0.5
- BetRivers 0.5
- BetMGM 0.5
- FanDuel 0.5
- DraftKings 0.5
- Hard Rock Bet 0.5
- Fliff 0.5
- Fanatics 1.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ DAL | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 0 | under |