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Tyler Allgeier
ARI @ DAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 9.5 · median of 2 books ·
53Signal · under 9.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.4 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 12.1 yds against 9.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 9.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -20 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | -6 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 0 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 3 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 9 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 9 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 10 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 7 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 9 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 10 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | DEN | 30 over | +20.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
9.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 9.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs DEN | 30 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 10 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 7 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 10 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 9 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | -6 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 33 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 10 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 0 | under |