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Tyler Allgeier
ARI @ DAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 29.5 ·
51Signal · under 29.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
Underdog 29.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 8.7 a game recently
- targets: 2.4 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.02 yds per carry
- vs DAL · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 37.7 yds against 29.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 29.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -20| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | 73 over | +43.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 23 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 19 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 70 over | +40.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 19 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 9 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 49 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 16 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 48 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | DEN | 49 over | +19.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
29.5Underdog· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 29.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs DEN | 49 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 48 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 49 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 19 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 70 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 19 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 23 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | 73 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 67 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 55 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 49 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 57 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 16 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 38 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 51 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 80 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 24 | under |