← NFL board
Gardner Minshew
ARI @ SEA · Sun 4:25 PM ETRushing Yards · 4.5 at DraftKings · median 5.5 ·
70Signal · under 4.580% · 4 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 5Cleared the number in 1 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 1.0 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 0.3 yds against 4.5 · over 4%, under 96%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Sep 28, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -3 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-09-28 | BAL | -3 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | LV | -3 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | DAL | 0 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 5 | 80% under | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 5.5
- DraftKings 4.5
- DK Pick6 4.5
- FanDuel 5.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 5.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 5.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 5.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 5.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 5.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 5.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
- Bally BetMoved from 6.5 to 5.5
- betPARXMoved from 6.5 to 5.5
- BetRiversMoved from 6.5 to 5.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | -3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | -3 | under |