← NFL board
George Holani
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 8.5 at FanDuel · median 9.5 ·
52Signal · under 8.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs KC · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 12.8 yds against 8.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 8.5 · Sep 21, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -39 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | NO | 15 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | WAS | 0 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | ARI | 0 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | LA | 0 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 0 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 2 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 48 over | +39.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 2 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 24 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 0 under | −8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 10.5
- FanDuel 8.5
- Hard Rock Bet 8.5
- BetMGM 9.5
- Fliff 9.5
- PrizePicks 9.5
- Underdog 9.5
- DraftKings 10.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 24 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 48 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 15 | over |