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George Holani
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 26.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 25.5 ·
54Signal · under 26.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.2 a game recently
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs KC · ×0.94 yds per carry
- vs KC · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 28.0 yds against 26.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 26.5 · Sep 21, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -20| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | NO | 42 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | WAS | 9 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | ARI | 31 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | LA | 6 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 29 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ARI | 15 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 58 over | +31.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 20 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 31 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 20 under | −6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
6 books · 3 yds spread
- FanDuel 25.5
- BetMGM 25.5
- PrizePicks 25.5
- Fliff 26.5
- Hard Rock Bet 26.5
- DraftKings 28.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 26.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 20 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 31 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 20 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 58 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ARI | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 29 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 31 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 42 | over |