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J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETCarries · 14.5 at ESPN Bet · median 13.5 ·
44Signal · over 14.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.5 a game recently
Expected carries: 13.5 against 14.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -6.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 14 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 18 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 8 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 17 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 11 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 18 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 17 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | -0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 13.5 · best price BB, PX2 -118
- Bally Bet 13.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 13.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 13.5 -132 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 13.5 -135 (easiest number)
- Fliff 13.5 -135 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 13.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 14.5 +110
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 17 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 15 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 15 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 14 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 16 | over |