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J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETCarries · 13.5 at Fliff ·
46Signal · over 13.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.5 a game recently
Expected carries: 13.5 against 13.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 13.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -5.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 14 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 15 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 15 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 18 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 8 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 10 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 17 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 11 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 18 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 17 over | +3.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 13.5 · best price BB, PX2 -118
- Bally Bet 13.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 13.5 -118 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 13.5 -132 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 13.5 -135 (easiest number)
- Fliff 13.5 -135 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 13.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 14.5 +110
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 17 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 15 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 15 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 14 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 14 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 14 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 16 | over |