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J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 55.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 56.5 ·
56Signal · over 55.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.5 a game recently
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per carry
- vs ARI · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 51.5 yds against 55.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 55.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 80 over | +24.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 121 over | +65.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 59 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 84 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 36 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 36 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 53 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 52 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 74 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 46 under | −9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spread
- FanDuel 55.5
- Hard Rock Bet 55.5
- DraftKings 56.5
- PrizePicks 56.5
- BetMGM 57.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 56.5 to 55.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 57.5 to 55.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 58.5 to 56.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 58.5 to 56.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 55.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 46 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 74 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 52 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 53 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 36 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 84 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 59 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 121 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 80 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 40 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 84 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 105 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 83 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 85 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 68 | over |