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J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 56.5 at PrizePicks ·
56Signal · over 56.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.5 a game recently
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per carry
- vs ARI · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 51.5 yds against 56.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 56.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -20| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 80 over | +23.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 121 over | +64.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 59 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 84 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 36 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 36 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 53 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 52 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 74 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 46 under | −10.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
5 books · 2 yds spread
- FanDuel 55.5
- Hard Rock Bet 55.5
- DraftKings 56.5
- PrizePicks 56.5
- BetMGM 57.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 56.5 to 55.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 57.5 to 55.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 58.5 to 56.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 58.5 to 56.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 56.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 46 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 74 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 52 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 53 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 36 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 84 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 59 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 121 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 80 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 40 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 84 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 105 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 83 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 85 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 68 | over |