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J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETRushing Yards · 49.5 at BetMGM · median 47.5 ·
56Signal · over 49.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.5 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 46.9 yds against 49.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 49.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -13| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 81 over | +31.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 111 over | +61.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 61 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 77 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 36 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 36 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 49 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 40 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 68 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 41 under | −8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spread
- ESPN Bet 44.5
- DraftKings 46.5
- Hard Rock Bet 46.5
- DK Pick6 46.5
- FanDuel 47.5
- Fliff 47.5
- Bally Bet 47.5
- betPARX 47.5
- BetRivers 47.5
- PrizePicks 47.5
- BetMGM 49.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 54.5 to 44.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 58.5 to 46.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 58.5 to 46.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 49.5 to 46.5
- Bally BetMoved from 53.5 to 47.5
- betPARXMoved from 53.5 to 47.5
- BetRiversMoved from 53.5 to 47.5
- FanDuelMoved from 58.5 to 47.5
- FliffMoved from 58.5 to 47.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 47.5
- BetMGMMoved from 51.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 49.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 41 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 68 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 40 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 49 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 36 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 77 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 61 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 111 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 81 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 40 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 79 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 101 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 83 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 76 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 63 | over |